By: Jeff Anderson
|Close||Weekly return||YTD return|
|US Treasury 10yr Yield||3.842%|
Source: Wall St. Journal
The market finally got the inflation data it so desperately wanted on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) clocked in at 7.75% annualized for October. It was a disappointing 8.2% the previous month. Markets participants witnessed the best day for equities since April 2020. The Nasdaq Composite was up a whopping 7.35%. Even the fixed income markets had a huge day, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index gaining nearly 2%. That is a massive move in the credit markets. As you can see from the chart above, all the major US indices are down for the year and still have a way to go. It should be noted that we are still in a bear market and rallies (which are simply called bear-market rallies) are often more dramatic than rallies during a bull market. One day doesn’t make a trend, but it goes to show you how sitting out of the market when you have a long-term time horizon can be costly to your returns. We’ve cited on more than a few occasions how sitting on the sidelines for only a handful of days can have really hurt your returns. Just think of Thursday’s crazy day. If the long-term average annualized return for the S&P 500 is ~ 9 to 10%, missing a 6 or 7% return day can all but dash your hopes for the year. Many of us want to time the market. This should show you the perils of doing it wrong. And, worse than that, if you did seem to time it right once, you may be emboldened to do it again…and again. Eventually it will catch up to you. It is time “in” the market that matters most. Granted, it also must include having a diversified portfolio that matches your time horizon.
We can’t forget to mention two other important news items. One, is the mid-term elections. It’s been a closer race than many thought. As of Friday, many races are still too close to call. Odds are still in favor of the Republicans taking the House. In the Senate, the Democrats have gained a seat and it’s coming down to the wire. If Republicans take both chambers, it will create gridlock which is normally favorable for markets. The other newsworthy note was that Ukrainian forces successfully pushed Russian troops out of Kherson, which was the only regional capital in the south of Ukraine that Moscow had seized. The Ukrainian resolve has been impressive. Hopefully, the conflict is closer to the end than the beginning.
Traditional Energy Companies are in the Green Energy Game:
Koch Industries, one the largest private companies in America, is getting into battery technology. Many of us think of traditional energy companies as climate deniers or evil entities hell bent on destroying our planet in pursuit of profit. I believe that, in the end, they are energy agnostic. They see where things are going. They want to be suppliers of energy in whatever form the market wants. In the case of Koch’s investment in battery storage, its not for electric vehicles but rather for storing energy transmitted from wind and solar farms. Both wind and solar can be intermittent. Having the ability to store energy in large batteries can go a long way to making renewable energy a dependable source for the US power grid.
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